Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Wind wind go away...

The forecast is pretty much on track for the Denton area. The winds will be the main story for the week. We will see strong southerly winds ranging from 20-30mph with gusts to 40mph this afternoon. We will probably see the same setup again tomorrow. The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for today through Thursday.

There is still a very slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow night and Friday as a weak cold front and the dryline affect the area.

Computer weather models are hinting at a stormy week next week. That will be fine tuned as we go along. In the mean time hang on to your hats and skirts and watch out for flying debris today and tomorrow as the ferocious southerly winds let loose on us.

Hang on tight and have a safe “hump day”.

Here is the current graphicast image Courtesy of the National Weather Service:








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Monday, April 28, 2008

Very nice week on tap for the Denton area...

Nice weather will continue most of the week. We will see highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Another cool night tonight with the low around 50 degrees then a warm up through the week with lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s. Computer models are hinting at the next chance of rain being on Thursday or Friday. We’ll see as that time gets closer. Until then just enjoy this bout of nice weather.

One fly in the ointment of our beautiful week will be the wind. Winds will pick up on Tuesday out of the south and be pretty gusty for the rest of the week. I tell you, this has seemed like one of the windiest years I can remember.

Have a great week everyone.





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Friday, April 25, 2008

The Front Has Moved Thru the Denton Area...Possible Wet Weekend Ahead!

The front has moved through the Denton area and has pretty much ended any chances of thunderstorms for today. Winds will be gusty out of the north for most of the day. Temperatures will slowly fall into the low 70s by late this afternoon. Tonight’s low will be in the mid 50s. Highs on Saturday will make it into the low 70s. There will be a chance of thunderstorms beginning late Saturday afternoon some of which could be severe. Saturday night into the first part of the day on Sunday look to be showery with some pockets of heavy rainfall expected as the next front moves through the area. At this time it looks like the rain should end from west to east on Sunday afternoon.

T.G.I.F.





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Very slight chance of storms today, but the weekend is looking wet...

The cold front is moving into the western sections of the area this morning. A few storms could pop up along it as it moves through, but they should be isolated at best. The better chance will be to our east today. We will see gusty northerly winds behind the front and a temporary cool down. This front will eventually stall out to our south and begin to drift back to the north on Saturday. At the same time an upperlevel storm system will be moving close to the area. We could get some decent rains on Saturday and Sunday. I will wait for further data to assess the severe potential of the storms over the weekend.

Here is the latest graphicast image Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Look for muggy and windy conditions today...

We are between storm systems today so there will only be some isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms at best. Tomorrow will be the next day to watch for severe weather as a cold front moves into the area.

Look for gusty winds, humid conditions and clear to partly cloudy skies today. Highs will be in the mid 80s with heat indexes near 90 degrees. Tonight will be mostly cloudy and muggy with lows in the upper 60s.

Have a great Thursday.




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Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Looks like flood potential is increasing...

Analyzing radar and surface analysis shows a HP (High Precipitation) supercell is in the area and dying. However in its dying stage it's being absorbed by a larger system called an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System.)

The brilliant (and dangerous) lightning displays being observerd are typical of such systems in their early stages.

I usually expect lightning, very gusty winds and heavy rains with systems like this. Isolated events of hail can be expected too. Flash Flooding is definitely going to be a problem.

Nighttime flooding is the most dangerous type. If you come across water covering the road do what the National Weather Service says "TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN"

Please be careful out there tonight!

Storms beginning to fire up to our west... Update 5:06pm

Heavy thunderstorms are well west of the area, but they are supercell storms that have produced brief tornadoes and large hail.

Continue to be alert later this evening for the potential of severe weather in the Denton area.



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Potential for severe weather exists in the area later today...

The chance for thunderstorms will be increasing for us through the day. Some storms that form today will have the potential to produce large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Wide scale upward motion (lift) in the atmosphere is currently moving into west Texas with the next upper level disturbance. Upper air analysis shows that moisture continues to build up in large amounts over the area, and surface observations show high humidity levels in place (like you didn’t know that.) Our cap/lid has weakened considerably since yesterday. This all tells me that the chance of thunderstorms, some severe will be possible across the area beginning this afternoon and continuing into tonight.

After this round of rain moves out the next bout looks to be close on its heels and will affect the area on Friday as a frontal system moves in.

Keep the umbrellas handy today and your NOAA weather radios on standby late this afternoon into tonight.

Here is the latest graphicast image Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







Enjoy your Wednesday and make it over the hump.




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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Warm and Muggy Weather Will Continue For the Denton Area...

Our weather setup will remain unsettled, and it will be difficult to forecast specific events this week. Muggy weather will definitely continue as will the southerly winds. A cold front will sink into the Red River valley this evening, but is expected to stall out before making it too far into North Texas. The best chance of storms will be near the frontal boundary.

The cap/lid has weakened a bit, but is still there. We would need a lot of afternoon sunshine to pop up some garden variety thunderstorms in areas not near the front. Any storms that do form will have the capability of producing some hail and high winds. Again these will be isolated in nature.

If something pops up we’ll certainly try and give you heads up.

High temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s and nighttime lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Have a great Earth Day!



Here is a snapshot from one of the new weathercams we are installing at the Denton Tree and Moss Lab. This shot is looking to the west southwest towards downtown Denton. Soon we will be showing near real-time images to you. Click on the image for a larger view.






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Monday, April 21, 2008

We will have typical Spring time weather most of the week...

Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next few days. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Winds will be gusty out of the south today (what’s new!) and will continue to bring gulf moisture into the region.

The dryline will tease western sections of North Texas this afternoon but the chances of thunderstorms will remain low due to the relatively strong cap/lid in the upper atmosphere.

At this time it looks like the next best chance for thunderstorms will be Wednesday. Some of those could be severe storms and I’ll keep an eye on that for you and update as needed.

Have a great Monday everybody.





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Thursday, April 17, 2008

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 10pm for Denton...

Some severe storms have begun to develop to our west now with indications of some hail per radar analysis. The area is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10pm.

Keep an eye to sky and on the radar. Also monitor local television, radio and NOAA weather radio as this situation evolves. There is definitely dangerous cloud to ground lightning associated with these storms.





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Scattered storms, some heavy still expected across the area later this afternoon and tonight...

The atmosphere continues to slowly moisten up and the front continues its slow trek into the western sections of North Texas. The Storms Prediction Center (SPC) has narrowed down an area for a possible weather watch this afternoon. I would expect it to be a Severe Thunderstorm Watch as the conditions are just not quite right for tornadoes. Storms are still expected to form along the front sometime after 4pm.

Here is the area outlined by the SPC. This update was issued at 1:30pm:






At this time I will continue with my previous forecast post without much change. Additional data and comments will be posted as needed.





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Continued windy today with possible storms later...

The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory until 6pm that includes the Denton area. Sustained winds will be in the 20-30mph range, but some gusts could reach 40mph. These strong southerly winds continue to pump moisture into the area ahead of a cold front. The front has entered the Texas panhandle as temperatures were in the 40s up there compared to our upper 60s here in Denton.

An upper level low pressure area is now in southeastern NM and will be swinging out and across northwestern Texas along the cold front later today. Upper dynamics are pretty strong with this low and it will bring the possibility of some isolated severe weather to the area later this afternoon and tonight. However this morning’s (7am) upper air analysis over North Texas shows a very strong cap/lid still in place. I hope that the NWS sends up another weather balloon at 1pm to see how much the cap has weakened and what the dynamics look like at that time. The cap will weaken as the upper level low begins to get closer to our area. Also if we can get enough sunshine and good heating before the front makes it in that will give us a better shot at some isolated severe storms late this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to depict an area for a “Slight Risk” of severe weather that includes us here in Denton. At this time the main threats from any storm that may go severe will be large hail and high winds. Any storm that can break the cap and maintain its connection to the surface this afternoon will have the potential to produce a tornado also.

As the front moves through the area tonight a line of storms is expected to accompany it. With that in mind the storms with the front will have the capability of producing large hail and damaging winds. I don’t expect a widespread outbreak of severe weather as the stronger storms should be more isolated.

I will post later more as I gather new data throughout the day. Be sure and have your weather radios on standby later today and into the evening.

Looking ahead - the weekend is going to be warm and dry. We should see high temperatures in the 80s on Saturday and Sunday.

Have a good Thursday all!





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Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Wind Advisory in Effect Until 7pm. Also details about the Apr 9-10 severe weather outbreak...

Wind will be strong enough today to meet wind advisory criteria so the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory until 7pm that includes the Denton area. Sustained winds will be in the 20-30mph range, but some gusts could reach 40mph. Be careful and watch for blowing debris as you’re out and about today.

I mentioned yesterday that there is a slight chance of thunderstorms tomorrow. I did a quick analysis of surface conditions to our south and into the Gulf and find that moisture return is in progress. I also looked at a few computer model forecast and they are showing the front may be coming through later than originally thought. With the possible delay of the front we have more time for some quality moisture to make it into the area. The Storms Prediction Center has us in a “Slight Risk” of severe storms for later tomorrow into the evening hours. Due to the strength of the cap/lid in the upper atmosphere I would say that mainly scattered storms should form along the front as it moves through. There could be some isolated severe thunderstorms with the main threat being hail and high winds. I’ll post more on this as additional data continues to feed into my office.

-----------------------------------
Here is an image Courtesy of the National Weather Service that graphically shows what went on during the Severe Weather Outbreak on April 9 and 10. To read and see more detail about the event follow THIS LINK.








Everybody have a great Wednesday!





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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The weather pattern will remain relatively quiet for the next several days here in Denton...

Windy and dry pretty much sums up the forecast for the next couple of days. We will see high temperatures in the low 70s and lows ranging from the mid 40s tonight to the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night.

The strong southerly winds will attempt to bring moisture into the area, but there’s not a whole lot of moisture to be had for now. The last couple of fronts that came through have moved all the way into the Gulf of Mexico and scoured out the normally available moisture for this time of the year.

A front will move into the area on Thursday and depending on the time of day and the amount/quality of moisture we can build up, we could see some scattered storms Thursday afternoon and evening. The main item going against showers and storms is the fact that our cap/lid will be very strong and difficult to break through.

That really looks like our only chance of rain for the next several days. We will continue to be in a mostly dry pattern through next week. Time to start regularly watering the yards and plants.

Have a great week.





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Sunday, April 13, 2008

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

A SIGNIFICANT FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING
AS A COLD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST
LOCATIONS...FROST CAN FORM AT AIR TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 38
DEGREES UNDER THE RIGHT CONDITIONS.

FROST CAN DAMAGE OR KILL COLD SENSITIVE VEGETATION THAT HAS NOT
BEEN PROTECTED. RESIDENTS SHOULD PROTECT ANY TENDER PLANTS THAT
HAVE RECENTLY BLOOMED OR BEEN PLANTED. COVERING THEM WITH A LIGHT
BLANKET OR MOVING THEM BENEATH A COVERED PORCH SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH PROTECTION FROM THIS LATE SEASON COLD SPELL.




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Saturday, April 12, 2008

Possible Frost Sunday Night!

Atmospheric conditions are looking favorable for some patchy frost and the potential for a light freeze in low lying areas Sunday night.

We will have clear skies, dry air and light winds Sunday night. If you’ve put out tender vegetation that may have blooms on them you may want to be prepared to protect them should an actual frost advisory be issued tomorrow.

Pleasant weather will continue for the next several days. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s. The low tonight will be around 40 degrees and the low Sunday night is expected to be in the low to mid 30s. Frost can occur at temperatures as high as 38 degrees. After Sunday we will see lows climbing from the upper 40s to the mid 50s.






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Thursday, April 10, 2008

After a Busy Day and Noisy Night - Nice Weather is Expected For Several Days...

Well, round two of severe weather moved through the area around 4am. You may have noticed and were awoken by it. Hopefully you were woken up at least by your weather radio (as I was) as the intense squall line of severe thunderstorms approached the area.

I’ve gotten no Denton County storm reports from the NWS as of this post. Let me know if you received any damage.

Here is a graphicast image of areas to be investigated due to the storms Courtesy of the National Weather Service:






Weather Outlook:

The storms continue to exit the area to the east and northeast. No more are expected today and in fact I don’t see any in the 5-7 day outlook. The dryline is moving through the area and we will begin to see more sunshine and the winds will pick up as it clears the area. Winds may be gusty at times this afternoon, so the NWS has issued a Wind Advisory that includes Denton. We could see some gusts to 35mph. With southwest winds and sunshine we should make it into upper 70s and low 80s today.

A cold front will move through the area tomorrow and bring some gusty north winds with it. We will see highs tomorrow probably in the upper 60s. The weekend looks nice. North winds will stay with us through Sunday and high temperatures will be around 70 degrees.

Have a great Thursday!





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Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Round 1 of severe weather has passed, but don't let your guard down just yet!

Well round one of our severe weather event is drawing to and end as the very long lived supercell thunderstorm is now moving near the OK border. I’ll recap all of the storm damage reports tomorrow, which will include tornado damage and injuries from out near Breckenridge.

I’m sure that if you’ve been out since the storm grazed the area you’ve noticed that the air is still very muggy. With the loss of daytime heating we will probably see a lull for several hours.

Sometime after midnight a cold front/dryline combo will be moving into the area with the powerhouse upper level storm system that is in New Mexico/West Texas. With it will come round two.

We continue to have a very unstable atmosphere that is ripe for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. As the upper system moves the cold front/dryline into this air overnight through tomorrow morning we will see widespread heavy thunderstorms, some severe with the main threats being large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Due to the instability that’s available to these storms, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

It is very important to have your NOAA weather radio within earshot of where you’re sleeping tonight. Also we continue to be in a Flash Flood Watch through tomorrow. There could be some 2” to 3” rainfall totals with isolated higher amounts in places when all is said and done.




Here is a wide radar shot of the South Plains Sector as of 9:48pm. Notice the strong storms that are beginning form out in the Midland Odessa area in Southwest Texas. These storms are forming along the dryline and will be moving to the north east towards North Texas overnight.



For updated images here is the link you can follow to get the National Weather Service South Plains Sector Radar

Stay Alert Tonight




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Tornado Warning Continues for Northwestern Denton County...

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
806 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

TXC121-497-100130-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-080410T0130Z/
WISE TX-DENTON TX-
806 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN DENTON AND NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTIES...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
TORNADIC CIRCULATION. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PONDER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PONDER BY 815 PM CDT...
KRUM BY 820 PM CDT...
SANGER BY 830 PM CDT...

TENNIS BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED IN DECATUR AT 755 PM. LARGE
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TORNADO TRACK.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3343 9714 3324 9706 3316 9739
3343 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 245DEG 31KT 3330 9744

Northern Denton County Under the Gun...

I've been analyzing the radar and it looks like there is pretty good rotation approaching Sanger.

Residents near and in Sanger need to take cover now.

Tornado Warning Now in Effect For Denton County...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
748 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 17 MILES WEST OF PONDER..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36
MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
PONDER BY 810 PM CDT...
KRUM BY 820 PM CDT...
SANGER BY 825 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION...THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL CROSS INTERSTATE 35
NEAR THE SANGER AREA AROUND 820 PM.

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO MAY BE OBSCURED BY RAIN. IF YOU WAIT UNTIL
THE TORNADO IS VISIBLE BEFORE TAKING COVER IT WILL BE TOO LATE!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3343 9714 3324 9706 3316 9739
3343 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 245DEG 31KT 3321 9755

$$

82/JLD

Severe Weather Update 7:17pm

DENTON COUNTY IS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS WARNING

From the NWS
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 713 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 7
MILES SOUTH OF RUNAWAY BAY..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 36 MPH. THIS STORM
HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
LAKE BRIDGEPORT BY 720 PM CDT...
BRIDGEPORT AND CHICO BY 730 PM CDT...
BOYD BY 735 PM CDT...
DECATUR AND ALVORD BY 745 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3343 9752 3312 9738 3301 9764 3300 9805
3322 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 236DEG 31KT 3308 9784

A Quick Radar Shot Courtesy of WeatherToGolf,LLC:




Supercell thunderstorm continues to wreak havoc just to our west...

THIS WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE DENTON

The latest tonadic activity has prompted a new warning....

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT WED APR 9 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHERN PARKER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 646 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 28 MILES WEST OF SPRINGTOWN..MOVING EAST AT
41 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE
TORNADOES!

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
SPRINGTOWN BY 715 PM CDT...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.

IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

THIS DEVELOPING TORNADO MAY BE OBSCURED BY RAIN. IF YOU WAIT UNTIL
THE TORNADO IS VISIBLE BEFORE TAKING COVER IT WILL BE TOO LATE!

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3318 9772 3286 9766 3285 9813 3305 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 254DEG 35KT 3293 9810

Keep and eye out to the west...

Palo Pinto county is now taking a hit from a possible large tornado. There has been definitely been confirmed damage in Breckenridge. This is the same storm.

I've been traking this storm on radar and it seems to be an HP (High Precipitation) Supercell. It is also long-lived and produces tornadoes. It is on an easterly path and if it continues to hold together then folks immediatley to our west need to be prepared. It is very possible that this tornado is wrapped in rain and may not be visible.

Stay tuned to local television, radio and NOAA weather radio for important updates.

BE ALERT!

Denton is now under a Tornado Watch until 11pm tonight...

A Tornado Watch has been issued for our area now and is in effect until 11pm.

Here is the severe weather type probability forecast for the areas bounded by the watch.

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT WED APR 09 2008

WT 0179
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 40%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 40%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%


ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 550
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO





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A PDS Tornado Watch Has Been Issued For Counties Just To Our West and Southwest...

A PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Tornado Watch has just been posted from Wise County to the southwest. The city of Denton is not included in the watch, but it does show us that things are about to begin to fire up.

Stay tuned for updates…




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Severe storms are a good bet today in the Denton area...

We are in between weather events this morning, so you might call it the “calm before the storm”.

Several things are coming together for a severe weather outbreak across North Texas this afternoon and tonight. Yesterday’s cool front that moved through will be drifting back to the north as a warm front today bringing plenty of gulf moisture into our area. A very powerful upper level storm system will be moving in from the west during the day. The winds in the upper atmosphere will be tremendously sheared with this storm system. Sheared - meaning there will be lots of twisting and turning of the upper level winds. This tells me that tornadoes will be very possible with many different storms as they get going and begin to interact with the aforementioned warm front moving north and a dryline moving eastward.

Also with copious amounts of moisture in the air there will the chance of some flooding rains. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for our area through Thursday.

The action today may come in two separate waves, one this afternoon and the second wave overnight into tomorrow morning. The first wave of activity will likely bring the most severe potential with possible tornadoes through the area. The later one may bring just as much severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds and very heavy rain.

Once things get going it will be imperative that you monitor local television, radio and NOAA weather radio as things will be very volatile and you will need all the warning time you can get, should a storm threaten your area. As flooding becomes an issue into the evening hours be very careful if you are out driving. Remember the saying from the NWS “Turn Around Don’t Drown” and heed it.




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Tuesday, April 8, 2008

After reviewing further data...

The front is now just to our west. Most of today’s action will be just ahead of the front, so after we have frontal passage we may not see many storms and rain until later this evening. The front is expected to stall right in the middle of North Texas later and will begin a retreat to the north this evening. This will trigger widespread rain and thunderstorms, some severe across all of North Texas.

Updates as needed.




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Sun, Clouds, Storms etc. - It's spring time in Texas...

A Pacific cool front is approaching the area from the west this morning. Some storms have already popped up down in the Dallas and Rockwall area, but are quickly moving off to the east. As the front makes it into the area rain chances will increase and some of the storms may become severe with very heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds. It won’t rain continuously, but when it does expect some good downpours and quite a bit of lightning activity. I expect an even better chance of severe storms with possible flooding rains tomorrow afternoon into Thursday.

Keep your eyes on the radar and the sky. The next few days may get bumpy at times. You know the drill - umbrellas and weather radios at the ready!

More updates as needed as I get more data.

I’ve been asked by several people where I like to hang out online with other folks that like to talk about the weather. I spend my free time (what’s that?) with a lot of great people over at TheWeatherBoard.Com. Want to learn something or ask questions? It’s the place to go. My online nickname is TxWx which is short of course for Texas Weather. Check it out if you get a chance. It doesn’t cost a thing. Just click on the banner below to get there and take a look around.




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Monday, April 7, 2008

Attn Local Storm Spotters & Chasers...A PDS Tornado Watch Issued Just to Our NW...

THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE DENTON COUNTY!






URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 169
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

LARGE PART OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY POTENT SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH VICINITY E/W FRONTAL ZONE
CENTRAL OK AND ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD INTO NWRN TX.
SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY EVOLVE GIVEN SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORM. POTENTIAL EXITS FOR
LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS MOVING ACROSS WARM SECTOR WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...HALES

Unsettled Weather Most of the Week Here in Denton...

Nice warm spring day here in Denton. We will see temperatures making it to the 80 degree mark this afternoon. The cool front that had been in our area this morning has lifted back north and will continue to do so. The dryline is setting up in west Texas at this time, but there isn’t a lot of eastward movement for now.

We currently have a very unstable atmosphere which would be conducive to strong/severe storms, but there isn’t anything around to trigger them and the cap/lid is moderately strong. The dryline will finally begin to move eastward this afternoon and will be the focus for some isolated storms late today. Some storms could make into the northwest area of our region, so just be aware that there is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms in the forecast for later on today.

Storm chances will continue tomorrow as a cool front moves in from the west. Some of these storms could also be severe. On and off rain chances will continue through early Thursday as an upper level disturbance will be approaching and moving through our area during this time.

We will keep you updated as needed should storms begin to fire in or near the area. Also, I can’t say it enough, but keep those NOAA weather radios on standby tonight and tomorrow so that you can get early warnings should bad weather approach your location.

Have a great day.




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Sunday, April 6, 2008

Glimpse of the upcoming week weather-wise...

It’s going to be an unsettled week with a couple of chances of severe weather affecting the area. I would call it a typical early spring-time pattern. Right now the best chances of rainfall look to be Tuesday through Thursday. However, the dryline in west Texas could become active and move close enough to us to trigger some storms on Monday afternoon and evening. We’ll keep an eye on it.

You won’t need them all the time, but I would keep your umbrellas and weather radios ready for use this week.

Have a great week all.




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Friday, April 4, 2008

After a Noisy Night - Nice Weekend Ahead for Denton...

I imagine some folks were rudely awoken by storms overnight. Here are some preliminary local storm reports for Denton County:

1:20am GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED BY HAMS 3 miles WEST OF BOLIVAR or 7 miles W OF SANGER
1:29am TENNIS BALL HAIL IN the NORTHEAST part of the City of DENTON
1:35am COMMERICAL BUILDING ROOF DAMAGE in the City of Denton
3:18am QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN FLOWER MOUND

There were several public reports of golf ball size hail in here in the city of Denton.

There was also a report of very large (softball size) hail in Decatur (Wise County) at the Sheriff’s office.

If you would like to see more storm reports from our part of North Texas go HERE for the National Weather Service’s graphical local storm reports.



Today will be a cool windy day behind the cold front here in Denton. The weekend looks to be very nice with highs around 70 degrees on Saturday and in the mid 70s on Sunday. Tonight will be cool with a low in the middle 40s, but the lows will warm over the weekend into the mid to upper 50s.

We will continue to see unsettled weather for the coming week as the jetstream, high up in the atmosphere, continues to move at a very fast clip bringing occasional disturbances over North Texas which is typical of Spring time in our area.

Everyone have a great Friday and a wonderful weekend.




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Thursday, April 3, 2008

Unsettled Night Across The Area...

I tell you this has been one of those convoluted air mass days… The dryline remains stalled west of a line from Wichita Falls to Abilene then into the Big Bend area. The cold front is really taking its time getting through Oklahoma, but has almost sunk south to the TX – OK boarder. I can still see a lot of dynamics yet to pass us by before this storm system is done.

Moisture continues building up in the area per recent surface observations. About the only thing to make this sticky air rise is the dryline or the cold front. Well the cold front is still forecast to move through our area overnight. Also, looking at upper level wind observations and forecasts I think that we still have a chance of some heavy rain along the cold front. The amount will greatly depend on it (the front’s) forward movement.

All in all - the front seems to be on track to arrive between midnight and 6am. During this process, if storms start to increase and move south with the front then I imagine that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be issued for the area. The tornado threat will decrease as time goes by, and storms that do go severe will probably exhibit characteristics of what is known as an HP(high precipitation) Supercell thunderstorm with hail, high winds and very heavy rain being the main threats.

A good night to have the NOAA Weather Radio by your bed and set correctly so that you can be warned if dangerous weather approaches while you are sleeping.




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Tornado Watch in Effect Through Midnight For Denton...

Courtesy of the National Weather Service:

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
555 PM CDT THU APR 3 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 555 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF DE QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ENEWD AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AS SSWLY LLJ
INCREASES. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITH
PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND WOULD POSE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORM ROOTING NEAR THE
SURFACE.




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Severe Weather Update... Thur 4:36pm

The dryline has stalled to the west of our area. A tornado watch is in effect until 9pm for counties to our immediate west.

Showers are beginning to develop (popcorn style) around the area now with afternoon heating beginning to max. Any storm that can get going will have the capability of dropping large hail and bringing very gusty winds with it.

The dryline has stalled as it is now awaiting some upper level energy and the cold front to catch up with it. As they converge widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms should begin to move into the area from the west this evening. Flooding may become an issue tonight since we just recently had pretty good rains in the area.

If threatening weather approaches your area tune to local TV, radio and NOAA weather radio for additional watches and potential warnings.

We will continue to monitor the situation here at the DRC.




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The Severe Weather Threat Continues...

The dryline is beginning to take shape west of the Abilene area. Moisture does continue to flow from the south out ahead of this feature. Thunderstorm initiation will probably begin along the dryline over the next couple of hours and I wouldn’t be surprised to see us put into a Tornado Watch in the next hour or so. The more sun we get out ahead of the dryline, the more likely severe storms will be.

This afternoon and evening’s storms will likely become severe to our west and begin their march eastward. However a cold front, now dropping into northwestern Oklahoma will eventually catch up to the dryline and we will see heavy thunderstorms overnight as they move into the area. The main threats tonight look to be very large hail, strong winds, and heavy rain. However, I can’t rule out an isolated tornado especially ahead of the dryline later this afternoon and also with the main system as it pivots through the area overnight.

We will continue to monitor the situation and let you know when the watch has been issued for the Denton area.




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Storms are scattered in the area, some with very gusty winds at this time...

Showers and thunderstorms have formed to our southwest. Some storms had formed earlier to our south and moved into Tarrant and Dallas County. As they died off they produced up to 50mph wind gusts, and temporary power outages in Dallas. This tells me that there is some extreme wind energy to be had with any storms that form.

Hit and miss storms during the day, but the big show is still on for this evening and tonight.

Updates as needed.




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Severe Storms Tonight...

We could see a few showers and a rumble of thunder or two during the day today. However, as the afternoon heats up and gulf moisture continues to pour into the region the atmosphere will become very unstable across North Texas. Several ingredients are coming together for a severe weather outbreak late this afternoon into tonight. High winds and very large hail will be the main threats, but there is a slight chance of tornadoes too.

With a potential nighttime severe storm outbreak make sure you have your NOAA weather radios tuned and ready.

I’ll post more as things come together today. We are included in an area marked as a moderate risk of severe storms by the Storm Prediction Center.

We try our best to keep you informed and safe here at the DRC Weather Blog.




Here is the latest graphicast Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







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Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Severe storms still in the forecast tomorrow...

Excerpts Courtesy of the National Weather Service from the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook:




THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE...WAXAHACHIE...
TO CANTON LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MODERATE
RISK AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY
ONCE COLD AND DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
A CANTON TO LAMPASAS LINE.





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Scattered showers an storms today, but tomorrow may be worse...

A few showers and storms moved through the area this morning and some more are possible this afternoon. Stronger storms will likely contain some hail.

Tomorrow looks to be a busy day here in North Texas as things are coming together for another round of severe storms. Unlike Monday, I will be in the office and can monitor them a little better.

Here are the preliminary storm reports for Denton County on Monday:

3:35CDT HIGHLAND VILLAGE - BASEBALL-SIZE HAIL REPORTED. (FWD)
3:52CDT LITTLE ELM - PING PONG SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LITTLE ELM (FWD)


Here is the latest graphicast Courtesy of the National Weather Service:






More details on tomorrow’s potential severe weather outbreak as data becomes available.

Keep the umbrella handy today.




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