Tuesday, May 27, 2008

It may get noisy again overnight...

Our atmosphere really got worked over by today's storm system and hasn't had much time to recover. However, a cold front is off to our northwest and some very heavy storms have formed along it. They are currently moving in our general direction. If they maintain their strength and current movement some of them will be just to our west before midnight.

Should the storms make it into the area they could potentially cause very heavy rain, gusty winds and some hail.

Keep the weather radios within earshot tonight. Flooding may end up being a problem again overnight and in the morning.




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Some storms around us this morning...

A line of thunderstorms is slowly sagging past the Red River this morning. They are more than likely in a dissipation stage, but may make a little noise for us this morning. Looks like quite a bit of lightning with them at this time. If they maintain their strength look for some gusty winds maybe some pea size hail and some pretty heavy rain.

More later…




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Monday, May 26, 2008

Muggy Memorial Day...




Quick weather check shows that our cap/lid is even weaker today. Also a very subtle disturbance is noted in satellite loops in southwest Texas and is moving north-northeast towards north Texas and will probably arrive in conjunction with afternoon high temperatures reaching their peak later this afternoon.

So I’m going to say that there is a slightly better chance that some of us will see shower or thunderstorm activity today than the last few days. If you outdoors this afternoon just keep an eye to the sky for scattered storm development. Remember if you can hear thunder then the storm is close enough to produce deadly cloud to ground lightning strikes.

We are still looking at mid week for the best chance of rain as a cold front moves into the region.




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Tuesday, May 20, 2008

It's not summer yet?

Well a cold front eased through and now we only made it into the lower 90s. Temperatures will remain warm, but the humidity will be on the increase for the rest of this week. Expect some "summer muggies" before the weekend.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Severe Weather Threat Will Continue Overnight...

Tornado watch expired, but the SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4am that includes the Denton area and southward. An organized area of thunderstorms, some severe, are coalescing to the southwest of north Texas. There are still storms forming nearly due west of the area but not making much eastward progression. The thunderstorm system (known as an MCS - Mesoscale Convective System) developing to our southwest will move in a north northeastward direction and may affect our area after midnight. MCS’s can produce copious amounts of rain along with strong wind gusts and hail. We will most likely be on the northern edge of this system.




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Possible severe storms still in the forecast through tomorrow...

It looks a bit like a supercell is forming in Young County. If it continues to maintain direction and strength it would be in the area around the 9pm-10pm range. It is probably putting down quarter sized hail right now and very heavy rain just west of Graham. Storms also to the southwest are moving our direction also and if they hold together they’d be in here between 10pm and midnight.

Forecast for noisy night still on track…




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Noisy Night Alert...Storms will roam the area through tomorrow morning...

It looks like the weather is setting up for a late evening overnight event. Severe thunderstorms are still possible this evening through tomorrow. The dryline/cold front combo have come close to our western areas, but have now stalled or are moving back to the west. The storms that have spawned off this system may begin to affect us after midnight. Possible hail, high winds and a heavy rain threat will stay in the forecast through tonight.

Tomorrow the front and dryline make another approach at the area and will probably make it all the way through. This could bring another round of significant weather to the area, especially heavy rainfall.

Put the weather radio on standby this evening and within earshot overnight.

Stay safe, but enjoy the rain – month to date we are below normal, so we can use the rain. Just hopefully not all at once.




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Tornado Watch in Effect Through 9pm For the Denton Area...

A tornado watch has been issued for the Denton area until 9pm. Here are the details Courtesy of the National Weather Service:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 311
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
A LARGE PART OF NORTHERN TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS
TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Here is the graphical outline of the watch area Courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center:




Stay alert and safe.




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Severe storms still in the forecast for this afternoon into tomorrow...

The Storm Prediction Center has reiterated its severe weather outlook of Moderate Risk in their latest discussion that includes our area. A couple of things caught my attention in the midday SPC outlook. The moderate risk area has grown in size mainly to include additional areas to our south and southwest. But it seems that the tornado threat has lessened some. That is a good thing, but always remember - “Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornados with little or no warning.” – Also we are still in an area for damaging wind and hail. People will need to pay attention to the currently developing weather situation. First and foremost have your NOAA Weather Radio on standby, listen to local television and radio for watches and warnings that are issued in the area.

Okay- here is what I think. Things could get rowdy in the next several hours with afternoon heating taking place. Anywhere the temperatures stay warm, and if you get a glimpse of sun you’ll probably experience a thunderstorm or two. As we continue to heat up, and the dryline makes a move towards us from the west - activity will increase as the day goes on. Then a cold front will enter the picture from the northwest and then begin to “lolly-gag” in the area. Lollygag - as in stalling and undulating. This may present us with a potential flooding problem as storms may form, dump very heavy rains and then form again in the same area… This scenario will probably be later this evening and overnight. In the mean time our atmosphere is pretty loaded with water and energy, so the storms this afternoon will have the potential to cause large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado.

Stay alert and safe.




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The potential for severe weather will increase throughout the day...

Severe storms are looking more likely late this afternoon and evening according to the Storms Prediction Center (SPC) in Oklahoma. There are 3 risk categories that the SPC labels a potential severe weather outlook with – Slight Risk – Moderate Risk – High Risk. We were in a slight risk for today, but the SPC made a decision to upgrade that to a moderate risk. So you’re probably saying what does that mean for me in the Denton area. Well once your area has been identified in the outlook as a moderate risk, it means that conditions are forecast to come together to produce significant severe weather. Although it may not sound impressive, it puts the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given spot in the risk area to 15%. It increases the chance of damaging hail within 25 miles of any given spot in the risk area to 45%-60%. It also puts the damaging wind probability at 45%.

So while a slight risk is bit concerning, a moderate risk is much more of a concern. But remember this is a forecast based on observations, computer model input and a forecaster’s interpretation and is subject to modifications of magnitude up and down. Also as more data comes in, the area can be tweaked for more precision.

I am going to do some surface, upper air and satellite analysis and will make another post with my thoughts later on. In the mean time this is a heads up at a potential severe weather outbreak in and close to the area this afternoon and evening.

Here is this morning’s grapicast that outlines the slight and moderate risk area for north Texas Courtesy of the National Weather Service:








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Monday, May 12, 2008

Pleasant today, but rain's on the way...

The week is looking unsettled weather-wise. Today will be nice as the humidity remains low, but that will change as winds begin to pick up out of the south and southeast. Moisture transport from the gulf will begin in earnest later today and overnight. Look for high temperatures today and tomorrow to be around 80 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for the next couple of nights.

We will see a chance of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast starting late tomorrow through probably Thursday. It won’t rain continuously, but some folks will pick up some decent rainfall totals when all is said and done.

We’ll need to watch the Tuesday night through Wednesday time frame for the possibility of severe storms. Of course I’ll post more on that as the event draws near.

Have a good week everybody.




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Saturday, May 10, 2008

Warm and muggy with isolated storms this afternoon...

The dryline has moved east of Abilene and will be getting into our western area this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may break out along the dryline, but due to a strong cap/lid the storms should be isolated at best in the Denton area. Most of the activity is expected to form to the east of us. Our atmosphere is very unstable, so where storms do break out there will definitely be the potential for severe activity.

Keep and eye to the sky this afternoon and if threatening weather develops close to you be prepared to take cover from the elements. Stay tuned to local TV, radio and NOAA weather radio for possible watches or warnings.

Here is a recent graphicast image Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







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Friday, May 9, 2008

Warm and windy over the weekend here in Denton...

Warm weather to continue into the weekend. There is a very slight chance of thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night as the dryline flirts with the Denton area.

Weekend Forecast:

Tonight’s low temperature will be in the mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and north northeast winds around 10mph.
Saturday: Partly cloudy and windy with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms, some possibly severe. Our high will be in the low 90s. Winds will be easterly becoming southwest with gusts to 25mph.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with the gusty winds switching to the northwest around midnight. Low temperatures will be in mid 50s. Winds will be gusty out of the north northwest with gusts to 25mph.
Sunday: Sunny and windy with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be north northwesterly at 10-15mph with gust to 20mph.

The weather will remain unsettled next week. There will be a couple of chances of thunderstorms.

I’d like to give a “welcome to the world” shout out to my latest great nephew Johnny Wayne Knight born this morning. Be sure and congratulate his granddad Barry Vermillion too.
Have a great weekend all!




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Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Tornado Watch in Effect Through 8pm For the Denton Area...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF DURANT
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
NORTHERN EDGE OF SURGING SURFACE DRYLINE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX...AND
IN REGION STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING OVER SOUTHERN OK. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A RISK OF TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
INTO DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

Weather Update Wed. 11am...

After reviewing satellite loops and surface analysis I’ve come to some conclusions. The satellite loops show that the upper-level storm system is a bit further north than expected and will probably move to our northeast later today. This will reduce the severe hail threat somewhat. Surface analysis shows that the dryline is moving in from west Texas and is just east of Abilene. I still expect that scattered thunderstorms, some severe, will form along and ahead of the dryline. If we can get some good sunshine to heat us up prior to the dryline’s arrival we will see more widespread storms. Otherwise they may be widely scattered as our cap/lid is relatively strong, but is in the process of eroding.

I would still keep my eyes on the radar and ears to NOAA Weather Radio should storms pop up and begin to move in from the west.

Have a good Wednesday everyone. I’ll post updates as needed.




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The potential for severe weather remains in the forecast...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are roaming the area again this morning. We will see the coverage and intensity continue to increase as the dryline and the upperlevel storm system move closer to us throughout the day. As I mentioned yesterday this storm system has a very cold upper level core and will increase the chance of large damaging hail this afternoon with any organized storm.

This is really a heads up post for today’s severe weather potential. I’ll analyze more data and wait for a couple of reports to come in and will update you again later this morning.

You will want to keep your weather radio on standby and within earshot all day today.

More to come…

Here is this morning's graphicast image Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







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Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Storms moving on out this morning - But watch out for tomorrow!

Most of this morning’s storms have moved east out of the area. They are only a hint at what we may be dealing with tomorrow.

Here is the latest graphicast depicting this morning’s storms Courtesy of the National Weather Service:







An intense upper-level storm system, now over Baja California, will be moving our way and stirring up the atmosphere. This storm system has a very cold upper core and it’s wrapped tight. Winds at the jetstream level are in excess of 150mph. With that data in mind and knowing that it will be affecting our area maybe as early as tomorrow morning I’m giving you heads up now. There’s going to be a severe weather outbreak with this system and we may be in it or awfully close. The storms that move in and develop tomorrow will definitely be hailers and also produce damaging wind gusts. At this time isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Weather radios will be needed to keep you safe and updated tomorrow.

Thursday through the weekend look nice and almost HOT as temperatures make it into the 90s.

I’ll bring you updates and tweaks to the forecast as we move towards tomorrow’s severe weather event.

Have a good Tuesday.




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Heavy storms on our door step this morning...

A line of heavy thunderstorms is moving into the area from the west this morning. A lot of cloud to ground lightning is noted with these storms. Nickel sized hail is probably occurring with these storms. Expect storms to move into our area by 7am. It could be a wet and noisy commute this morning. Be careful out there today.




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Monday, May 5, 2008

Showers and storms will roam around the area today...

Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage this morning across north Texas. At this time nothing severe is expected, but a lot of cloud to ground lightning is showing up with these storms so be careful if one is near your area.

Keep your umbrellas handy as the showers and storms will be scattered across the area through this evening. Wednesday may be our next potential severe weather day.

I’ll post more later as get data into my office.




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Friday, May 2, 2008

Beautiful weekend on tap for Denton...

The cold front that came through this morning and gave a few of us some showers has moved on into east Texas. A large area severe weather outbreak is ongoing at this time in the mid Mississippi valley. Numerous tornadoes have been reported along with fatalities. That will be the main story on the news this evening.

As for the Denton area we are on the quiet and pleasant side of the front. Nice weather will stay with us through the weekend. The humidity will be low, so we will see warm afternoons and cool mornings through Sunday. Nighttime lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees and the daytime highs will be in the 70s. A reinforcing shot of dry cool air will move into the area with another cold front tomorrow. No rain is expected with this front, but we will see gusty north winds of 20-25mph during the day on Saturday.

A chance of rain and storms will be introduced into the forecast beginning on Monday. A large upper-level storm system will dominate our weather for much of the week and we may have to deal with some severe storms at times. As we move closer to that event I’ll be able to pin down the timing of storm systems it.

Everyone have a great weekend.




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WeatherToGolf radars will be up and down for a couple of days due to computer maintenance. I figured since the weather will be calm this would be the best time to take care of this. Thanks for your patience.

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Thursday, May 1, 2008

Most folks will stay dry tonight....

The wind advisory has been cancelled for the rest of the day as clouds have kept the gusty winds aloft from mixing down to the surface.

We continue to have a very strong cap/lid on the atmosphere above north Texas. Therefore the chance of storms tonight is pretty much nil. The Red River counties have the better chance (still not that great) of storms than the rest of us. Any storm that does get going will become severe quickly this evening.

A cold front will sweep through the area tonight into tomorrow. Again as the front moves through there will be the slightest chance of thunderstorms, but most areas will remain dry.

So far the weekend is looking nice and there is still a shot at some rowdy weather early next week.

Everyone have a good afternoon and evening.




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