The potential for severe weather will increase throughout the day...

Severe storms are looking more likely late this afternoon and evening according to the Storms Prediction Center (SPC) in Oklahoma. There are 3 risk categories that the SPC labels a potential severe weather outlook with – Slight Risk – Moderate Risk – High Risk. We were in a slight risk for today, but the SPC made a decision to upgrade that to a moderate risk. So you’re probably saying what does that mean for me in the Denton area. Well once your area has been identified in the outlook as a moderate risk, it means that conditions are forecast to come together to produce significant severe weather. Although it may not sound impressive, it puts the chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any given spot in the risk area to 15%. It increases the chance of damaging hail within 25 miles of any given spot in the risk area to 45%-60%. It also puts the damaging wind probability at 45%.

So while a slight risk is bit concerning, a moderate risk is much more of a concern. But remember this is a forecast based on observations, computer model input and a forecaster’s interpretation and is subject to modifications of magnitude up and down. Also as more data comes in, the area can be tweaked for more precision.

I am going to do some surface, upper air and satellite analysis and will make another post with my thoughts later on. In the mean time this is a heads up at a potential severe weather outbreak in and close to the area this afternoon and evening.

Here is this morning’s grapicast that outlines the slight and moderate risk area for north Texas Courtesy of the National Weather Service:

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Remember you can keep up with the latest real-time conditions in Denton by using the link below courtesy of the WeatherUnderground and WeatherToGolf,LLC.

Click here for Real time Denton weather conditions.

UPDATED LINK: See Denton local radar and area temps courtesy of WeatherToGolf.Com

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