Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Severe storms still in the forecast for this afternoon into tomorrow...

The Storm Prediction Center has reiterated its severe weather outlook of Moderate Risk in their latest discussion that includes our area. A couple of things caught my attention in the midday SPC outlook. The moderate risk area has grown in size mainly to include additional areas to our south and southwest. But it seems that the tornado threat has lessened some. That is a good thing, but always remember - “Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornados with little or no warning.” – Also we are still in an area for damaging wind and hail. People will need to pay attention to the currently developing weather situation. First and foremost have your NOAA Weather Radio on standby, listen to local television and radio for watches and warnings that are issued in the area.

Okay- here is what I think. Things could get rowdy in the next several hours with afternoon heating taking place. Anywhere the temperatures stay warm, and if you get a glimpse of sun you’ll probably experience a thunderstorm or two. As we continue to heat up, and the dryline makes a move towards us from the west - activity will increase as the day goes on. Then a cold front will enter the picture from the northwest and then begin to “lolly-gag” in the area. Lollygag - as in stalling and undulating. This may present us with a potential flooding problem as storms may form, dump very heavy rains and then form again in the same area… This scenario will probably be later this evening and overnight. In the mean time our atmosphere is pretty loaded with water and energy, so the storms this afternoon will have the potential to cause large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado.

Stay alert and safe.




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