Continued windy today with possible storms later...

The NWS has issued a Wind Advisory until 6pm that includes the Denton area. Sustained winds will be in the 20-30mph range, but some gusts could reach 40mph. These strong southerly winds continue to pump moisture into the area ahead of a cold front. The front has entered the Texas panhandle as temperatures were in the 40s up there compared to our upper 60s here in Denton.

An upper level low pressure area is now in southeastern NM and will be swinging out and across northwestern Texas along the cold front later today. Upper dynamics are pretty strong with this low and it will bring the possibility of some isolated severe weather to the area later this afternoon and tonight. However this morning’s (7am) upper air analysis over North Texas shows a very strong cap/lid still in place. I hope that the NWS sends up another weather balloon at 1pm to see how much the cap has weakened and what the dynamics look like at that time. The cap will weaken as the upper level low begins to get closer to our area. Also if we can get enough sunshine and good heating before the front makes it in that will give us a better shot at some isolated severe storms late this afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to depict an area for a “Slight Risk” of severe weather that includes us here in Denton. At this time the main threats from any storm that may go severe will be large hail and high winds. Any storm that can break the cap and maintain its connection to the surface this afternoon will have the potential to produce a tornado also.

As the front moves through the area tonight a line of storms is expected to accompany it. With that in mind the storms with the front will have the capability of producing large hail and damaging winds. I don’t expect a widespread outbreak of severe weather as the stronger storms should be more isolated.

I will post later more as I gather new data throughout the day. Be sure and have your weather radios on standby later today and into the evening.

Looking ahead - the weekend is going to be warm and dry. We should see high temperatures in the 80s on Saturday and Sunday.

Have a good Thursday all!

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